While one or two dominant rivalries generally define a generation in tennis, the same periods feature several intriguing sub-rivalries that simmer just below the surface of the leading narratives. Such a classification might describe the rapidly heightening rivalry between Azarenka and Radwanska, who will meet for the third time already in 2012 after having met no more than twice in any other season. We preview this semifinal and the other notable matches on Saturday in Doha, Rotterdam, and San Jose.
Azarenka vs. Radwanska: Colliding for the fourth time in six tournaments, these steadily rising stars have grown more accustomed with each other’s games than they probably would wish. They have reached final sets in all four of their meetings over the last twelve months and in six of nine completed matches overall, suggesting the evenness of their matchup. Yet Azarenka’s 7-3 advantage over her friend and rival does not surprise, for she strikes us as precisely the type of player designed to frustrate Radwanska’s intelligent counterpunching. Armed with the power to outhit the Pole from the baseline, the world #1 also possesses sufficient consistency to wait until the right moments in rallies to pull the trigger rather than attempting low-percentage shots. That blend of power and consistency, when executed effectively, usually overcomes the finesse and instincts that players like Radwanska showcase. But it is easier said than done to sustain that blend of control and aggression throughout an entire match, which explains largely why they have engaged in so many three-setters. In each of those last four meetings, Azarenka lost the first set while struggling to find her range. In all four, she won the second set; in three of four, she won the third as well; in the two this year, she won the third easily.
All the same, Radwanska proved in a Tokyo semifinal last fall that she can conquer Azarenka on a stage as important as this encounter in Doha. En route to that title and to the Beijing title a week later, she displayed the best tennis of her career by interweaving a few timely bursts of aggression into her naturally defensive game. Those occasional backhands down the line or penetrating returns of serve kept her opponents from relaxing into the assurance that they could aim for targets at their leisure against an opponent who posed no real active threat. Retreating a little from that mentality in 2012, Radwanska will want to return there on Saturday to overcome the only opponent who has defeated her this year. Primed by the post-breakthrough slumps of Li, Kvitova, and to a lesser extent Stosur, one would have thought that Azarenka would approach this week with minimal motivation.
If she has, though, Vika has disguised any dip exceptionally well by losing four or fewer games in all three of her matches as she seeks a remarkable fifth consecutive final. Allowing opponents to win only four service games in the tournament, she will look to feast on Radwanska’s serve as she did in the Melbourne quarterfinal. Across the net, the fourth seed will attempt to match break for break in a manner similar to the first set of that recent clash, when her repeated incursions onto her opponent’s serve reaped rewards by rattling the Belarussian. In her first key test as the world #1, Azarenka will hope that her 15-match winning streak in 2012 trumps the Pole’s 15-match winning streak at Premier Mandatory and Premier Five tournaments. Expect an extremely high-quality encounter and likely another third set as both players attempt to consolidate their recently elevated status.
Stosur vs. Bartoli: If returns and backhands represent the principal weapons in the other semifinal, serves and forehands will prove the key to the less notable match. At least, they should determine the fate of the more powerful ball-striker, Stosur, who has enjoyed exactly the week that she needed to rebound from a miserable Australian season. Although she flirted with disaster against Niculescu on Friday, this outstanding server will have gained confidence from surviving that test as well as from her revenge over Melbourne nemesis Cirstea two rounds before. In stark contrast to the history between Azarenka and Radwanska, they never have played a close match against each other and have not played a close set since their very first set in New Haven 2006. Since then, six bagels and breadsticks have littered their remaining ten sets, while the losing player has won four or fewer games in each of their last three meetings.
The personalities and playing styles of both women travel some distance towards explaining this oddity, for Stosur moves through matches at a brisk pace that tends to intensify momentum in either a positive or negative direction. Meanwhile, Bartoli lacks the capacity to recalibrate her distinctive shot-making style when it misfires and must stake her success on eventually striking her targets. While the Frenchwoman probably remains the better competitor overall, Stosur has found firmer confidence than usual under pressure this week. Both of these semifinalists, like the other two, stand at or near career-high rankings, but the Aussie has accomplished much more notable feats in the last several months. With victories at majors over Henin and Serena, the two leading women of the last decade, Bartoli has accumulated a more consistently impressive portfolio over the years. Which of these talented but enigmatic women can we trust again in 2012?
Del Potro vs. Berdych (Rotterdam): Although four meetings falls well short of constituting a rivalry or sub-rivalry, the world #7 and world #10 might start to collide more often if both could play more consistently as they did in 2010 and 2009, respectively. Broadly parallel in playing style, both men rely upon pulverized forehands to capitalize upon the initial blows of their serves, and this indoor hard court should offer an ideal venue for those weapons. But Del Potro’s two-hander surpasses Berdych’s backhand in sting and accuracy, whereas the Czech probably enjoys greater talents in the forecourt. Moreover, these mighty ball-strikers diverge in their preferred length of point, more extended for the US Open champion than for the Wimbledon finalist. These subtle distinctions may not play a key role when two such offensively oriented juggernauts collide, however, for neither can recover easily from the other’s atomic first strikes on a fast surface.
Overshadowed by the ATP big four, the Czech and the Argentine both displayed signs of recapturing their best tennis by reaching the quarterfinals at the Australian Open before falling to Nadal and Federer. The manner of those losses again distinguished them subtly, for Berdych severely tested Nadal through four sets whereas Del Potro succumbed to Federer—whom he formerly had troubled—in an uneventful three. After Melbourne, the world #7 won his second title in the last few months at Montpellier, continuing his most consistent span of play since the summer of 2010. With Tsonga lately unimpressive, Berdych currently seems the most plausible challenger to the elite on the upcoming Masters 1000 hard courts. A top-five player just two years ago, Del Potro poses the second most convincing threat.
Harrison vs. Raonic (San Jose): Several years into the future, this all-North American duo could develop one of their generation’s signature rivalries. A year ago at Indian Wells, they collaborated on an entertaining albeit uneven three-setter that juxtaposed the calm of the Canadian with the pulsating ferocity of the teenager. Admittedly, a serve like Raonic’s massive delivery would make most players feel poised and confident, for it allows him to cruise through the majority of holds without a tremor of pressure. Perhaps bolstered by American fans starving for a champion, the feisty Harrison ultimately prevailed on the slow courts of Southern California as his steadier groundstrokes outlasted his opponent’s less complete game.
When the battleground moves to a relatively fast indoor arena in Northern California, the surface edge will shift to Raonic while the crowd factor remains in the American’s favor. The last of his countrymen in the draw, he may feel especially motivated to excel in the wake of his thrilling Davis Cup weekend. But Harrison has wobbled through three-setters and an unnecessarily complex second set against a qualifier on Friday. Not always coherent in strategy, the American prodigy still needs to refine his point construction skills while living a little less in the moment. More mature and less a perfectionist, at least outwardly, Raonic has recognized his limitations as well as his talents. Conceding only one break point in his first two matches, the defending champion pursues a more straightforward route to success that makes him both less interesting and (so far) more effective.
Written by:
