Decimated by withdrawals and retirements, the Dubai draw has developed in a slightly unexpected manner. Of the four remaining women, the most notable three depart from the WTA blueprint for success by maneuvering rather than hammering their way to victories. Among these counterpunchers stands a less familiar aggressor, but one who already has claimed a Premier title. She confronts a player whose stock has fallen precipitously in recent months and who would relish a chance to reassert herself.
Goerges vs. Wozniacki: After the pre-tournament withdrawals of Azarenka and Kvitova, Wozniacki became the presumptive favorite to defend her Dubai title. While she would reach the final without facing a seeded opponent, one should not underestimate the challenges before her in the previous two rounds. Surviving an assault of relentless aggression but only sporadic brilliance by Ivanovic, the Dane relied upon steadiness and sensible tactics to defeat her fellow former #1 even when not at her best. On an average day, Wozniacki generally will trump an average performance by an opponent because of her risk-averse shot selection and rarely ruffled composure. That said, her semifinal adversary twice succeeded in ruffling her on red clay last year with intelligent tactics of her own. Recognizing that Wozniacki struggles with high-bouncing balls to her backhand, Goerges thrust her off balance and behind the baseline with looping balls early in rallies. Those shots in turn drew meek mid-court replies that the German could attack with the fiercer groundstrokes more characteristic of her style.
Well designed for clay, that strategy may prove less effective on hard courts, but Goerges has troubled Wozniacki on this surface before as well. At the Dane’s home tournament in Copenhagen, she took her to a third-set tiebreak at a stage when she ranked outside the top 30. The German’s results have fluctuated dramatically over the past year between first-round meltdowns and stirring upsets or near-upsets. A tiebreak away from a first-round exit here, she reversed the momentum of her encounter with Kuznetsova and rallied from a one-set deficit again to dispatch Hantuchova. Having played her way into the tournament, she will hope to start this match more positively so that she does not face the prospect of launching a comeback against an opponent of the Dane’s experience. Across the net, Wozniacki must prepare for a baseline barrage perhaps similar to what she experienced against Ivanovic. Unlike the Serb, though, the German can strike explosive winners with ease from both of her symmetrical groundstroke wings, so the Dane cannot rely upon consistently targeting a weaker side as she did in the quarterfinal.
Throughout 2011, the Stuttgart final remained the only match in which Wozniacki never earned a break point on her opponent’s serve. By serving with that efficiency again, Goerges could compensate for the superior consistency of an opponent favored on this medium-speed hard court. If a raw shot-maker like the German leaves the door open an inch, though, Wozniacki will chip away until it becomes a mile.
Jankovic vs. Radwanska: Despite their extensive experience in the WTA, this pair of counterpunchers has met only twice with Jankovic winning on clay in 2008 and Radwanska on a hard court last year. Undefeated against opponents other than Azarenka this year, the Pole has built upon her outstanding second half of 2011 that included two prestigious titles in Asia and an appearance at the year-end championships. A former fixture at that latter event, Jankovic has not won a title in nearly two years as age and the labors of nearly 700 matches have chipped away at her once-lithe movement. Nevertheless, her upset of Stosur marked her first victory over a top-10 opponent in several months and impressed as much as Radwanska’s commanding triumph over Lisicki. In testimony to the modest speed of the surface here were those two results, in which versatile counterpunchers withstood far more powerful but more mercurial adversaries. At first glance, one might struggle to distinguish between their styles, for both Radwanska and Jankovic shoulder the burden of mediocre serves while relying upon down-the-line backhands as their signature shot.
But their games in fact contain a host of differences, starting with their preferred court positioning. Whereas Jankovic stays bound to the baseline (or behind it) during most rallies, Radwanska ventures boldly into the forecourt even without the advantage of an overwhelming approach. Confident in her skills at the net, the Pole likely will aim to stretch the Serb forward as her opponent seeks to stretch her laterally. Meanwhile, Jankovic will rely upon her more penetrating groundstrokes to keep her artful opponent at bay and deny her the time to craft her clever combinations. Myriad mini-momentum shifts look destined to unfold in a match where first-strike tennis plays an unusually minor role by the WTA’s current standards. While Jankovic once spared no effort to secure victory, her competitive willpower has declined from disillusionment since she lost the #1 ranking. Never having achieved that peak, Radwanska has a less exalted standard against which to measure herself and has grown in quiet ambition as she has matured. If the match stays close, the Pole’s deeper reserve of confidence might become a decisive factor.
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